One of the great difficulties in measuring https://www.bwin.com/ ability is that those same fields where the implications of the accuracy of predictions are so profound – think poor Intelligence and the Iraq war – accountability is rare, or very difficult to pin down. One man however, has tracked predictions for over two decades, exploring what constitutes good judgement and utilising the Hedgehog vs. Fox distinction. His insights make fascinating and hugely pertinent reading for gamblers. Philip Tetlock spent 20 years recording the predictions of government officials, professors, journalists and politicians, and discovered that from over 28,000 predictions they were only slightly more accurate than chance. His work and approach are summarised in his 2005 book: ‘Expert Political Judgement? How good is it? How can we know?’
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